Press release on Machine learning can help slow down future pandemics

Comparison of different evolution regimes of disease spreading: free evolution (bottom left half) vs network strategy (top right half). Image by L. Natali.
The article Improving epidemic testing and containment strategies using machine learning has been featured in the News of the Faculty of Science of Gothenburg University.

Here the links to the press releases:
Swedish: Maskininlärning kan bidra till att bromsa framtida pandemier
English: Machine learning can help slow down future pandemics

Improving epidemic testing and containment strategies using machine learning accepted in Machine Learning: Science and Technology

Comparison of different evolution regimes of disease spreading: free evolution (bottom left half) vs network strategy (top right half). Image by L. Natali.
Improving epidemic testing and containment strategies using machine learning
Laura Natali, Saga Helgadottir, Onofrio M. Maragò, Giovanni Volpe
Machine Learning: Science and Technology (2021)
doi: 10.1088/2632-2153/abf0f7
arXiv: 2011.11717

Containment of epidemic outbreaks entails great societal and economic costs. Cost-effective containment strategies rely on efficiently identifying infected individuals, making the best possible use of the available testing resources. Therefore, quickly identifying the optimal testing strategy is of critical importance. Here, we demonstrate that machine learning can be used to identify which individuals are most beneficial to test, automatically and dynamically adapting the testing strategy to the characteristics of the disease outbreak. Specifically, we simulate an outbreak using the archetypal susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model and we use data about the first confirmed cases to train a neural network that learns to make predictions about the rest of the population. Using these prediction, we manage to contain the outbreak more effectively and more quickly than with standard approaches. Furthermore, we demonstrate how this method can be used also when there is a possibility of reinfection (SIRS model) to efficiently eradicate an endemic disease.

Improving epidemic testing and containment strategies using machine learning on ArXiv

Comparison of different evolution regimes of disease spreading: free evolution (bottom left half) vs network strategy (top right half). Image by L. Natali.
Improving epidemic testing and containment strategies using machine learning
Laura Natali, Saga Helgadottir, Onofrio M. Maragò, Giovanni Volpe
arXiv: 2011.11717

Containment of epidemic outbreaks entails great societal and economic costs. Cost-effective containment strategies rely on efficiently identifying infected individuals, making the best possible use of the available testing resources. Therefore, quickly identifying the optimal testing strategy is of critical importance. Here, we demonstrate that machine learning can be used to identify which individuals are most beneficial to test, automatically and dynamically adapting the testing strategy to the characteristics of the disease outbreak. Specifically, we simulate an outbreak using the archetypal susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model and we use data about the first confirmed cases to train a neural network that learns to make predictions about the rest of the population. Using these prediction, we manage to contain the outbreak more effectively and more quickly than with standard approaches. Furthermore, we demonstrate how this method can be used also when there is a possibility of reinfection (SIRS model) to efficiently eradicate an endemic disease.

Laura Natali presents her PhD project at the ActiveMatter online meeting, 10 September 2020

The ActiveMatter ESRs + PIs Online Meeting (if you want to know more read the main news here) took place on the 10th of last month. For the first time, the members of the ActiveMatter were in the “same place” also if just online. All the Early Stage Researchers were asked to introduce themselves in a short presentation video.

Laura Natali, ESR at the University of Gothenburg, also presented herself during the meeting.

The video lasts only five minutes and introduces Laura, her current project and the area of research she will study during the PhD. You can find the presentation below, and it is also on the ActiveMatter youtube channel .